IT revenue sales through European distribution will see modest growth of 2.6% year-on-year (YoY) next year after a tough 2023, according to CONTEXT, the global IT market intelligence company. The firm’s team of analysts arrived at the figure after industry outreach and analysis of key market trends and sales data over recent quarters. It places revenue sales for 2024 in a range of -0.5% to 6.5% (2.6% is the central forecast), up from a 2023 forecast -6%.
► Delayed refresh cycle and AI will boost growth
► Recovery may depend on macroeconomic factors
There are several expected drivers for better performance in 2024, including new AI-based products and use cases, a delayed product refresh cycle, and positive comparisons with the previous year. New government stimulus may also be pumped into the industry following the resolution of elections in Spain and a new liberal administration in Poland.
However, much will depend on the macroeconomic picture, and whether economic conditions stimulate consumer demand and business investment.
A potentially good portent is the recent stabilising of business confidence for the first time in 2023, after seven consecutive monthly drops within the EU.
Here’s a brief rundown of our 2024 revenue sales growth range predictions by category.
- PCs: Mobile computing 4.9% to 11.7%; Desktop computing -0.8% to 8%
- Enterprises server: -0.4% to 7.6%
- Enterprise storage: -0.2% to 7.7%
- Displays: Desktop monitors -6.2% to 2.6%; Large format display (LFD) 1.7% to 11.7%
- Networking: -10.2% to 1.3%
- Imaging: Printer hardware -5.8% to 3.9%; Consumables -3.3% to 0.6%
According to CONTEXT, 2023 has been a year of correction after the Covid fuelled growth of recent years. It has been a tough year for distribution and all the IT Industry as businesses suffered a loss of confidence to invest. However, there is light at the end of the tunnel as CONTEXT predicts Q2 2024 to be the turnaround quarter, with volume and value growth rates converging and then continuing in the second half of the year.
