Where the US market goes, the UK and Europe will usually follow and the latest figures from Canalys give rise to the hope that PC sales will start to see a recovery in the first half of 2024. The firm’s latest data shows that combined shipments in the US declined only 6% year-on-year to 18.2 million units in Q2 2023 – a significant improvement compared to earlier quarters this year.
► Pockets of demand starting to emerge
► Q4 growth expected to be 12%
► Increase of 9% forecast for 2024 and 12% for 2025
Notebook shipments were down only 4% to 15.2 million units, bolstered by the return of Chromebook demand in the education sector. Desktops suffered a steeper decline of 12% with just 3.0 million units sold. The commercial sector was down 4%, while consumer sales dropped by 10%.
Ishan Dutt, Principal Analyst at Canalys, said that with the backlog of channel inventories now largely cleared, pockets of stronger demand could be seen. One of which was demand from education, backed by the latest wave of federal funding and ahead of a licensing cost increase on ChromeOS.
Consumers, he noted, were still deprioritising spending on PCs compared to other goods and services amid economic challenges, but he expects some recovery to happen in Q4, with strong discounting expected during the holiday season. Businesses demand was firmer in the US, he noted.
Canalys expects an even smaller shipment decline of 4% in Q3 2023 before the market bounces back to 12% growth in Q4. Beyond that, the market is forecasted to grow 9% in 2024 and 12% in 2025.
‘The long-term outlook for PCs in the US remains positive,” said Dutt. “As macroeconomic pressures subside, the strong fundamentals around post-pandemic PC usage behaviour and the larger installed base across all segments will be a boon to the industry. From an innovation perspective, the expected demand boost from the transition away from Windows 10 is now set to be bolstered by the emergence of AI-capable PCs. While this new device category may not significantly increase shipment volumes, it will create strong revenue opportunities for both vendors and the channel as adoption becomes more widespread, particularly within businesses.’
